The below post from Jeanne Allen includes some confusing contentions. In particular, I don’t understand how she is using her numbers to contend that the expanded population of test takers does NOT help explain the decline in reading and writing scores.

Page 13 of main report from the College Board presents an easy-to-read section entitled, “The Increasing Diversity of SAT Takers.” The main information presented – in can’t-miss, bold type – is as follows:

754,922 minority students in the class of 2012 took the SAT, up from 600,830 in 2008.

457,971 class of 2012 SAT takers spoke a first language that was not exclusively English, up from 347,512 in 2008.

Unlike the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), which randomly samples students throughout the U.S., the SAT is taken by a self-selected group. As the nation becomes more successful in encouraging under-represented subgroups to consider college, we can expect that those taking the SAT will include more and more lower-scoring students from all groups (male, female, White, Black, etc). That is, when only small numbers of, e.g., Latino students take the SAT, those students will be clustered toward the top of the curve. As that pool grows larger, the average score for the subgroup will likely decrease. Indeed, this appears to be happening. Of course, other factors may be in play as well, but unfounded speculation about those possible factors isn’t particularly helpful.

Viewed charitably, perhaps Ms. Allen could be understood to be arguing that the overall flat numbers cannot be completely accounted for by shifts in group participation. That is, Simpson’s Paradox cannot completely explain these results. This is true. But see here and here for nice discussions of how understanding long-term SAT trends does require an understanding of Simpson’s Paradox.

In any case, where Ms. Allen and I can agree is that achievement gaps are unacceptable and should be addressed. Children learn when they have opportunities to learn. That is, achievement gaps arise from opportunity gaps. We as a nation have decades of strong research about the sources of these inequitable opportunities to learn. And we’re starting to see signs that lawmakers are indeed paying attention to some of these inequities – with a renewed focus on things high-quality early-childhood education and so-called ‘children’s zones.’ Let’s hope this trend continues.

“Does the expanded population of test takers explain the decline in reading and writing scores?”

The simple answer is no, it does not – despite the College Board’s continual insistence to the contrary. What these SAT scores, combined with the equally dismal ACT scores, confirm is that the majority of kids in this country are not ready for college, that more of our students are not being adequately served by their schools, and that a dangerous achievement gap still persists among ethnic groups.

When looking at the total scores of reading, math, and writing combined, white students have made no progress in the last six years, but continue to score higher than their African American and Hispanic peers whose scores have been in a steady decline since 2006. Conversely, the scores of Asian students have been steadily increasing. The average combined score for white students in 2012 (1578) is almost identical to their score in 2006 (1582). African American students’ scores have declined from 1291in 2006 to1273 in 2012 and the scores of Hispanic students went from 1371in 2006 to1350 in 2012.

We need to ask ourselves, how many more years of dismal test scores are we willing to accept? How many more kids are we willing to sacrifice to a bad education on the altar of the status quo? Because what we have been doing is clearly not working. Student achievement on college entrance exams remains stagnant and we continue to let this failure fester in our education system. Not only are we not preparing our kids for college and careers, but we are jeopardizing their future and the future of their country.

So how do we turn things around? We need reforms that expand educational choices, encourage innovation, and put power in the hands of parents as demonstrated in the film Won’t Back Down. It’s going to take strong reform-minded leaders willing to stick their necks out and insist on real education reforms, who shake things up to increase student achievement that will move us forward. In other words, leaders who won’t accept lip service and platitudes as real reform from those who have a vested interested in protecting the status quo.

A primary cause for the alarming shortage of “college-ready” high school completers, as indicated by this year’s SAT and ACT results, is the lack of alignment between high school completion standards and expectations for the minimum academic preparation needed to successfully transition into postsecondary school education and training. There is little coordination between the secondary and postsecondary stakeholders in the current system, and as a result it’s not surprising to see divergent standards and expectations that hinder—or eliminate— viable postsecondary pathways for many high school completers.

To maximize the postsecondary attainment prospects of all students, we will need to facilitate alignment of academic standards and assessments of K-12 learning with those in the postsecondary education and workforce training space. The adoption of Common Core State Standards and Assessments (CCSS/A) are widely recognized as a critical driver of significant and meaningful education reform important to the economic success of states and communities. At the same time, CCSS/A represents a unique and unprecedented opportunity to forge necessary alignment between different segments of our education system. We may not get another chance.

Despite the lack of alignment thus far, it’s encouraging to see the recent engagement of the higher education and workforce communities in the work of CCCSS/A. This engagement, which is still fairly nascent, gives us an opportunity to actually create that aligned system. The implementation of the CCSS and assessments will be hard at all levels – and will be accompanied by some challenging transition issues. But we need to stay the course with this important work. With two-thirds of all jobs being created requiring some form of postsecondary education, the future economic vitality of the country depends on more people reaching, and demonstrating, higher levels of learning.